When you look at this graph, what percentages do you think is being represented?
For the first, it's kind of hard to eyeball. I'd probably guess about 1%. But what about the second one? If you said 50%, then you're probably an average American, and your selection makes perfect sense. But you're also wrong. Though my issue is more with the graph than with you. That graph represents 28%, but appears to represent nearly half. (For the record, that first one represents .12%.)
At first glance, Nate Silver seems like the kind of guy with whom I would get along quite well. With a shared penchant for poker and for proving people wrong, and the understanding and admiration for probability and statistics that comes with those things, he actually seems like he could be one of my major nerd heroes.
And because of THAT graph, I find myself exceedingly annoyed with him. That graph was pulled from Chapter 1 of Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise, a book about how bad or poorly-read data can lead to bad predictions. And in this midst of all of this warning about how when you only choose to see the data the way you want to see it, your predictions will end up being not only wrong but potentially really harmful (this section in particular was on the housing bubble), he chose to use a graphic that was willfully manipulative and presented in a way which fools the average thinker into being a lot more concerned than they need to be. Don't get me wrong, the fact that the number of securities which failed was 500 times the predicted number is a pretty damning statistic. But don't compound that with intentionally misleading representation. You're giving credence to the idea that there are "lies, damned lies, and statistics" in a book that is supposed to be defining the traps that our predictions fall into. One such trap is EXACTLY what you did just there. And it's unfair and manipulative.
I have since come to enjoy quite a bit of the book, which I am nearly through, but I can't help but remain hung-up on that one glaring point (and copious typos - did you even HAVE a copy-editor?) and getting really disgruntled about how knowingly misleading it is.
Irritably yours,
Rachel Leigh
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Friday, January 11, 2013
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
On My Fake Major
It's no secret that I'm a Political Science major -- I blog pretty often about politics (although I do try to keep it non-partisan (...I said "try," people, no writer is without bias!)), and it even says in my bio that I'm an "aspiring political activist." I am quite proud of my studies and the work I hope to do in the future, and I'm not ashamed of my major.
Which is why I get really annoyed when people treat me like my major isn't real. I almost feel like I didn't even really choose my field; Political Science chose me. By the time I came to college, the gravitational pull in that direction was so strong that no one I went to high school with even has to question what I decided to major in. I chose my major because it's what I'm passionate about, because the work I do for it is good, and because I'm very excited about what doors it may open for me when I graduate.
So let's get down to the nitty-gritty of why people seem to think my major is "fake."
My favorite question, by far, is, "What are you planning to do with that? Become the President?"* Now, if you're an Actuarial Studies major, an Astrophysicist, or studying Chemistry with plans to take up Pharmacology later in life, feel free to ignore this part of the discussion -- your unemployment rates are literally zero and you are therefore pretty much exempt from this whole issue. You will always have jobs because your fields are either too depressing, too boring, or too complicated for the vast majority of students, so we will always need people like you! Go you! But if you are planning to major in pretty much anything else, you can expect your job prospects to be pretty grim. Almost every field sees an unemployment rate of around 7%. Interestingly enough, the unemployment rate for students with Political Science degrees? 6%, according to a study done by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce**.
Let's face it, there are only so many Fortune 500 companies in the world to run (incidentally, there are 500 of them), which I'm pretty sure means that, even if everyone in charge of every one of those companies either retired or died, there STILL wouldn't be enough available positions for all of the Business School graduates from just my tiny University alone from the last three years. So I guess that makes your "job prospects" question a moot point. I appreciate your concern.
The other major (get it?) question I get a lot in relation to my major's legitimacy comes down to the number of units in my major. My major has a 10 unit class requirement (which equates to about 35-40 credits for all you crazy credit-system students out there), which is, admittedly, on the lower end.
There are a few reasons I think this complaint lacks legitimacy. First, we're all still required to complete the minimum 32 classes to graduate that everyone else is. We don't suddenly get to call it a day after a year and a half. Second, part of the reason the major is so small and flexible is because they encourage us to pick up minors, second majors, research, or study abroad semesters, and they want the major to be flexible enough to accommodate that. I actually feel bad for some of my friends in the hard sciences or business programs who just don't have the flexibility to go abroad. Third, and in my opinion, most importantly -- trying to take an entire semester of Political Science courses is crazy. If your brain doesn't explode from all the readings (which often contradict each other because theories contradict other theories and often those contradict practice), your fingers will probably freeze up and develop early-onset carpal tunnel from all the papers you'll write.***
It's not that I think other majors don't deserve credit -- I absolutely do. Most students I know work hard and get stressed, and everybody has their own skill sets. I, for one, am glad my best friend from high school is the Engineering major and I am not, because I would build bridges that would collapse and kill people. But while most people I know in my field recognize and respect the legitimacy of other majors, it makes me sad that we don't get the same respect in turn. Our skills are different than yours and our paths and passions took us in a different direction. Why does that make us any less worthy?
Studiously yours,
Rachel Leigh
* Leaving aside the fact that very few of the Political Science majors I know want to become politicians. That's a post for another day (one which is currently in the works).
** Source: http://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/NILF1111/
*** Shout out to Dr. Dagger and Dr. McDowell for combining to make me write more papers as a first semester freshman than many of my friends will write their entire time in college!
Which is why I get really annoyed when people treat me like my major isn't real. I almost feel like I didn't even really choose my field; Political Science chose me. By the time I came to college, the gravitational pull in that direction was so strong that no one I went to high school with even has to question what I decided to major in. I chose my major because it's what I'm passionate about, because the work I do for it is good, and because I'm very excited about what doors it may open for me when I graduate.
So let's get down to the nitty-gritty of why people seem to think my major is "fake."
My favorite question, by far, is, "What are you planning to do with that? Become the President?"* Now, if you're an Actuarial Studies major, an Astrophysicist, or studying Chemistry with plans to take up Pharmacology later in life, feel free to ignore this part of the discussion -- your unemployment rates are literally zero and you are therefore pretty much exempt from this whole issue. You will always have jobs because your fields are either too depressing, too boring, or too complicated for the vast majority of students, so we will always need people like you! Go you! But if you are planning to major in pretty much anything else, you can expect your job prospects to be pretty grim. Almost every field sees an unemployment rate of around 7%. Interestingly enough, the unemployment rate for students with Political Science degrees? 6%, according to a study done by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce**.
Let's face it, there are only so many Fortune 500 companies in the world to run (incidentally, there are 500 of them), which I'm pretty sure means that, even if everyone in charge of every one of those companies either retired or died, there STILL wouldn't be enough available positions for all of the Business School graduates from just my tiny University alone from the last three years. So I guess that makes your "job prospects" question a moot point. I appreciate your concern.
The other major (get it?) question I get a lot in relation to my major's legitimacy comes down to the number of units in my major. My major has a 10 unit class requirement (which equates to about 35-40 credits for all you crazy credit-system students out there), which is, admittedly, on the lower end.
There are a few reasons I think this complaint lacks legitimacy. First, we're all still required to complete the minimum 32 classes to graduate that everyone else is. We don't suddenly get to call it a day after a year and a half. Second, part of the reason the major is so small and flexible is because they encourage us to pick up minors, second majors, research, or study abroad semesters, and they want the major to be flexible enough to accommodate that. I actually feel bad for some of my friends in the hard sciences or business programs who just don't have the flexibility to go abroad. Third, and in my opinion, most importantly -- trying to take an entire semester of Political Science courses is crazy. If your brain doesn't explode from all the readings (which often contradict each other because theories contradict other theories and often those contradict practice), your fingers will probably freeze up and develop early-onset carpal tunnel from all the papers you'll write.***
It's not that I think other majors don't deserve credit -- I absolutely do. Most students I know work hard and get stressed, and everybody has their own skill sets. I, for one, am glad my best friend from high school is the Engineering major and I am not, because I would build bridges that would collapse and kill people. But while most people I know in my field recognize and respect the legitimacy of other majors, it makes me sad that we don't get the same respect in turn. Our skills are different than yours and our paths and passions took us in a different direction. Why does that make us any less worthy?
Studiously yours,
Rachel Leigh
* Leaving aside the fact that very few of the Political Science majors I know want to become politicians. That's a post for another day (one which is currently in the works).
** Source: http://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/NILF1111/
*** Shout out to Dr. Dagger and Dr. McDowell for combining to make me write more papers as a first semester freshman than many of my friends will write their entire time in college!
Thursday, June 28, 2012
On SCOTUS, Obamacare, and Perspective
Let's get a perspective check, shall we?
While we've been squabbling over whether a government should provide health care to its citizens (heads up, America: the rest of the first world has already made a decision on this issue and, even today, we're still way behind the trend...so, awesome).
In the 12 hours since the SCOTUS decision about Obamacare
If all this can happen in 12 hours, what could we do with a week? A month? A decade? What could the world look like if we didn't get so off track?
Sorry that got so serious. I promise, the next post will involve a picture of a kitten.
Seriously yours,
Rachel Leigh
Sources:
While we've been squabbling over whether a government should provide health care to its citizens (heads up, America: the rest of the first world has already made a decision on this issue and, even today, we're still way behind the trend...so, awesome).
In the 12 hours since the SCOTUS decision about Obamacare
- Roughly 15,000 people died from malnutrition and starvation. What did you throw away today?
- 820,000,000 people struggled to find safe, clean drinking water (Meanwhile, I have gone to the Brita in my fridge today three times to fill up my water bottle, and can't even begin to comprehend what it would be like to not have access to drinkable water)
- Roughly 3600 people have contracted HIV (for which we have yet to develop an affordable, accessible cure), in spite of worldwide programs designed to increase awareness and stop the spread of the disease
- 360 people were raped or sexually assaulted in the United States alone
If all this can happen in 12 hours, what could we do with a week? A month? A decade? What could the world look like if we didn't get so off track?
Sorry that got so serious. I promise, the next post will involve a picture of a kitten.
Seriously yours,
Rachel Leigh
Sources:
- Worldometers.info (http://www.worldometers.info/)
- The United Nations AIDS Clock (http://www.unfpa.org/aids_clock/)
- The Rape, Abuse, and Incest National Network [RAINN] (http://www.rainn.org/statistics/)
- Basic math skills on the calculator on my laptop
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